An out-of-control Chinese space lab, the Tiangong-1, is expected to fall to Earth within days, according to the latest estimate from the European Space Agency (ESA), which is monitoring its descent.
Space experts stress the potential danger to humans is tiny — the odds of debris from the vessel hitting a human are estimated to be less than one in 1 trillion. That compares with a one-in-1.4 million chance of a person in the US being struck by lightning.
However, Alan Duffy, a research fellow in the Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing at Swinburne University of Technology in Australia, said that China’s secrecy around the space mission made the risks difficult to assess.
„The international community doesn’t know what the craft is made of, and that makes estimating the danger more challenging, as hardened fuel containers could reach the ground while lightweight panels won’t won’t,“ he said.
Space station prototype
The 40-foot long Tiangong-1, or „Heavenly Palace,“ was launched in September 2011. Along with its successor — t he Tiangong-2, which launched in 2016 — it was a prototype for China’s ultimate space goal: a permanent, 20-ton space station that is expected to launch around 2022.
In its UN submission anticipating the craft’s fall to Earth, China said the probability „of endangering and causing damage to aviation and ground activities is very low.
