During his presidential election campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump stated that it is necessary to reevaluate the great powers’ agreement on the Iranian nuclear program…
During his presidential election campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump stated that it is necessary to reevaluate the great powers’ agreement on the Iranian nuclear program (the JCPOA). Support for the agreement should be withdrawn, he said, if it does not undergo “significant changes.” On January 13,2018, now-President Trump warned that if the agreement was not corrected within 120 days, the US would withdraw from it. According to Trump, Iran “doesn’t act according to the agreement.” Moreover, “we shall not pursue a path that ends in even more violence, terror and the actual threat of a nuclear Iran.”
Whether or not the agreement is changed or fully canceled, Tehran may well speed up its nuclear project. (In his shock revelation of April 30, Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that the thousands of Iranian documents spirited away by Mossad offer conclusive proof that Tehran had never ceased its quest for the bomb.)
One of the first countries to be threatened by the prospect of a nuclear Iran is its Sunni neighbor to the west, Saudi Arabia. In March 2018, the Saudi crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, said that if Tehran persisted in developing nuclear weapons, Riyadh would do the same.
China was one of the six signatories to the JCPOA (though it was quite passive during the negotiations leading to the agreement). The starting point in assessing Beijing’s perceptions regarding nuclear proliferation is the fact that China possesses such weapons — though its 270-strong arsenal of nuclear warheads (according to the Federation of American Scientists) is much smaller than those of the US and Russia, which hold 6,450 and 6,600 nuclear warheads, respectively. Beijing is not a nuclear superpower, but it is sufficiently powerful so as not to feel threatened by newcomers to the nuclear club.
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The nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf in particular is not desired by the Chinese, as it would almost certainly lead to tensions in the region that would increase oil prices and disrupt supply. China is the largest oil consumer in the world, and Middle Eastern oil accounts for over 50% of the oil imported into the country. Increased oil prices would lead to a jump in the prices of all commodities and instability in the markets, which could complicate the realization of China’s growth goals.
Beijing maintains a good economic and political relationship with Tehran and Riyadh, both of which are involved in many plans with the Chinese government.
