If President Trump strikes some sort of deal with already nuclear North Korea, and then unleashes the U. S. and Israeli military on non-nuclear Iran, the results would be catastrophic.
America’s president is being advised by unhinged warmongers. Pay attention, folks – war with Iran is what men like Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu want, and, it’s war they might just get; consequences be damned! With President Trump scuttling the Iran nuclear deal and threatening to impose new sanctions – against the advice of every major European ally – war seems like a genuine, if horrifying, possibility.
Here’s a prediction: (though forecasting is always a dangerous game) President Trump will strike some sort of deal with already nuclear North Korea, vie for a Nobel Peace Prize, and then unleash the U. S. and Israeli military on non-nuclear Iran. The results will be catastrophic.
Israel, no doubt, wants war with Iran, and just this past week blasted dozens of Iranian military sites in Syria. If Netanyahu and his far-right cabal in Tel Aviv want a disastrous, destabilizing war, then let them have it. The problem is that Bibi is counting on big brother Donald Trump and the US to back his play and join the fray. But that war, an American-Iranian conflagration, is not inevitable and ill-advised. The president, a man who ran on a platform of no new “dumb wars” – like the Iraq invasion – and ought to stick to his campaign pledge.
Here’s the bottom line: 1) Iran is neither the threat nor the monster it is billed as; and 2) The actual conduct and results of a major war with the Islamic Republic would be disastrous.
Let’s start with the purported threat of Iran. We are told that Iran is a regional ogre, bent on Mideast dominance and the creation of a new Persian Empire. It is staunchly dedicated to the absolute annihilation of the state of Israel. This all makes for excellent propaganda but is just empirically false!
Look, Iran is not a very open or transparent state. There’s no denying its flagrant human rights violations. Still, a little perspective is in order. Iran is far more democratic and open than Saudi Arabia – a US”ally” and one of the last absolute monarchies on earth. Iran, which is purportedly out to wipe Israel off the map, actually has a small but surviving and thriving Jewish community. Can the Saudis say the same? In fact, Iran even sets aside seats for one Jew and three Christians in its parliament. Non-Muslims are barely even allowed in Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, despite the ubiquitous (and disturbing) chants of “Death to America” in the streets, the Iranian population is actually younger, more educated, and more westward-leaning than other states in the region. Why alienate this potentially useful and growing portion of the Iranian populace by pulling out of the nuclear deal and threatening war? Indeed, America’s bellicose rhetoric is pushing Iran into the arms of Russia, a country that is not a natural ally of Iran and has a checkered history with the Islamic Republic. This is bad strategy!
The Iranians also have some genuine grievances. The CIA and M16 fomented a coup in 1953 to overthrow a democratically elected, nationalist prime minister and replaced him with a brutal autocrat. From 1980-88, the US supported Iraq’s invasion of Iran and provided Saddam Hussein with both intelligence and the supplies to produce chemical weapons.
Still not convinced? Well, let’s run through some hard facts and comparisons. Iran spends $11.5 billion on defense – that’s about the cost of a single American aircraft carrier (we have about a dozen, by the way). The US spends more on defense ($700+ billion) than the sum of Iran’s entire GDP ($427 billion). Besides, both the Israelis and Saudis spend more on defense and have more sophisticated militaries than Iran. Each could easily contain the Islamic Republic, or, in a worst case scenario, defeat it in outright war. Heck, Iran still has zero nuclear weapons – and no one ever seems to mention the elephant in the room: Israeli’s illegal (but existent) arsenal of a couple hundred nukes!
If Iran is such an aggressive menace, then why does the Pentagon’s own 2014 report admit that Iran’s military doctrine is essentially paranoid and defensive? These are the sort of facts that don’t make it into the mainstream, alarmist news cycle that perpetuates America’s forever wars.
