With a U. S. president facing the prospect of his party being trounced in midterm elections and a North Korean leader eager for a coming out party on the gl
With a U. S. president facing the prospect of his party being trounced in midterm elections and a North Korean leader eager for a coming out party on the global stage, what can Japan expect from Tuesday’s historic summit? The nightmare scenario: a compromise just good enough for both sides but glaringly lacking for Japan.
Just days ahead of the summit between U. S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the upbeat atmosphere surrounding the meeting stands in stark contrast to the nervousness in Tokyo.
“The biggest nightmare for Japan is that Kim declares his intention to relinquish the intercontinental ballistic missiles that he quickly developed last year and Trump simply hails the offer as ‘great,’ making no further demands,” said Matake Kamiya, a professor of international politics at the National Defense Academy.
“If that’s Kim’s proposition, it means Pyongyang’s arsenal of missiles and nuclear weapons developed before that will still exist,” he said. “I don’t think that would be enough of an achievement to convince (Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe to have his own meeting with Kim — even if Trump labels it ‘great.’”
Tokyo’s long-standing position — which it has repeatedly conveyed to Trump — is that the North should get rid of not only its ICBMs, but also its shorter-range missiles, which include hundreds of Rodongs, that can strike Japan.
Experts, and even Trump himself, have admitted that the summit will probably just be the start of a yearslong denuclearization process. Whatever deal is hammered out by the two leaders, it is likely to be more symbolic than substantial, with just enough meat to justify further talks.
“The most likely scenario is that they will squeeze out a semblance of an agreement that maps out no specific road map to denuclearization but serves as some sort of starting point that would allow them to talk about the details going forward,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
