Despite his indictment on insider trading charges, upstate Rep. Chris Collins remains the favorite to win re-election in the conservative 27th Congressional District, according…
Despite his indictment on insider trading charges, upstate Rep. Chris Collins remains the favorite to win re-election in the conservative 27th Congressional District, according to political insiders.
“It’s still a long shot for the Democrats to win the seat,” said one Democratic Party source familiar with the Western New York district.
“You don’t have the Democratic energy up there. It’s the most conservative seat in the state.”
Democratic candidate Nate McMurray, doesn’t even live in the district and was considered a sacrificial lamb before the charges against Collins were made public.
“It’s an uphill battle. It’s a gerrymandered seat,” conceded Erie County Democratic Party chairman Jeremy Zellman.
“But we have a much better chance today of winning the seat. Collins has shown his true colors.”
The congressional district, which takes in the suburban and rural areas around Buffalo and Rochester, is solid Trump country. He won it by 24.3 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump for president and has retained strong ties to the White House.
McMurray, town supervisor of Grand Island (population 20,879), has raised just $131,000 compared to Collins’ $1.3 million.
Collins’s disclosure forms show he is worth nearly $60 million and could pour part of his fortune into the contest, sources said.
Soon after the indictment was announced, Collins fired off an email to supporters saying he intends to stay in the race and clear his name.
His attorneys also issued a statement vowing “he will be completely vindicated and exonerated.”
But state and national Democratic leaders insisted Collins’ seat is now in play.
“This certainly doesn’t help the Republican cause,” said Geoff Berman, executive director of the state Democratic Party.
Upstate Republicans were shell-shocked.
“The charges look serious to me. I don’t know how much damage it does. It’s a solidly Republican area,” said Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino, a Collins ally who ran for governor in 2010.
“There’s no way we would want to lose this seat.”
Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul was the former congresswoman from Western New York.
But she lost to Collins in 2012 — by only 1.5 points — after the seat was redistricted to include more GOP-friendly turf.
Gov. Cuomo and congressional leaders sought to persuade Hochul months ago to run against Collins, but she declined.
There are recent examples of indicted incumbents being returned to office.
In 2014, then Staten Island GOP Rep. Michael Grimm easily won re-election while facing charges of tax evasion.
But after the election, he pleaded guilty and had to give up the seat to go to prison.
