In her presidential weekly briefing, Samantha Vinograd writes that Trump’s recent agreement to hold many of the migrants in Mexico while their asylum cases are processed in the US could jeopardize his relationship with the incoming Mexican president.
Your plan to make Central American immigrants wait in Mexico while their asylum claims are processed — along with your threats to close the border entirely — could put a serious strain on Mexican resources, and your own budding relationship with President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. While Mexico’s incoming government has denied there is an official deal, we assess that any extended “remain in Mexico” policy will have adverse consequences for the bilateral relationship. If your relationship goal is to create tensions with Mexico, extended stays for Central American migrants in Mexico or derogatory statements about Mexico’s own border security will do the trick.
Under your new plan, some of the asylum seekers currently at our southern border may be allowed to wait in the US while their applications are being processed. But the majority will likely be forced to stay in Mexico for an indeterminate time. The migrants will need food, housing, healthcare and other basic needs while they wait, and it remains unclear whether the population influx will raise any tensions in Mexico. While the Mexican economy rebounded last quarter, domestic poverty and inequality remain high. Obrador campaigned on giving money to Mexicans in need, not Central American migrants that the US does not want to take.
Over time, Obrador, who takes office December 1, may grow increasingly upset with your decision to place a strain on Mexican resources in order to save on your own. Obrador’s left-wing, populist campaign included promises of raising pensions for the elderly and increasing other social spending. So being asked to spend Mexican money on migrants that he thinks should be allowed in the US — rather than on programs to help Mexicans in need — could create a major rift.
Some of the migrants will also end up waiting in dangerous border towns, which presents an additional humanitarian risk, given that Mexico experienced its most murderous year on record in 2017. While we do not share your risk assessment that these migrants are themselves dangerous criminals, we do think that thousands of people who are stranded at a border for an extended period of time could be at risk of criminal activity, especially if they are in areas already prone to violence.
You are already deeply unpopular in Mexico and your relationship with Obrador could deteriorate quickly as he shores up his footing early in his term. Despite a warm embrace this summer, he could shift gears and direct his ire at you to maintain a strong standing domestically.
