It might be “Fire and Fury, Round II” or possibly a strategy to lure Trump into another summit.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made an ominous statement during his new year address, saying that his country would pursue a “ new path ” if the United States insisted on pushing ahead with sanctions on his country.
This, despite President Donald Trump spending the better part of 2018 insisting that his tough talk (followed by some serious dictator worship) with Kim eliminated any threat from North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear weapons programs.
It is not entirely clear what Kim meant by his statement on Tuesday, but it does point to one essential thing: President Trump’s fast-and-loose style of negotiations won’t work with Kim. Whatever a “new path” is, experts say it will require diplomatic precision and finesse, as the alternative would be dangerous.
Robert Manning, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, told ThinkProgress that Kim’s options are limited, given the security alliance between the United States and South Korea.
“I’m not sure what his path would be, other than his version of ‘fire and fury,’” said Manning, referring to threatening language Trump had used against North Korea.
“That is going back to testing and accelerating development…of a long-range missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and strike a target with accuracy,” he added.
A path that would exclude the United States, at this point anyway, seems unlikely as it would force a choice for South Korea — a choice between its long-standing security alliance with the United States and negotiating some kind of agreement with North Korea, which is very much the nuclear threat at its door.
Manning said South Korean President Moon Jae-in has taken a hit in public opinion in making as much (or as little, depending on one’s perspective) progress as he has with North Korea.
Kim, though, is keen to keep pursuing this course. He’s working hard, said Manning, to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States, and has actually proven himself to be quite adept at doing so.
“He’s taken it to a new level by advancing relations between the North and South [Koreas] farther than they’ve ever been, really,” said Manning.
And he’s pushing for more. For instance, he wants to open the Kaesong Industrial Region, where South Korea set up factories and hired tens of thousands of North Koreans (the region was shut down in 2016 over North Korea nuclear tests). But opening that industrial complex requires the Trump administration to lift sanctions.
Amb. Bonnie Jenkins, former coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs at the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, told ThinkProgress that a path forward for Kim is clearly one with, at the very least, reduced sanctions.
“The question, of course, is what that means, in terms of what they [the North Koreans] are willing to do,” said Jenkins, who is currently an advisory board member for Foreign Policy for America.
