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COLLEGE PARK, Maryland, May 21, 2020 (ENS) – There is a 60 percent chance of an above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with three to six major hurricanes, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, announced today ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season – June 1 through November 30.
The Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, says there is a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
They predict a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.
Of these, six to 10 could become hurricanes, packing winds of 74 mph or higher, and of these, there could be three to six major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher, with 115-plus-mph winds, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
NOAA provides these ranges with 70 percent confidence. NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, PhD, acting NOAA administrator. “Our skilled forecasters, coupled with upgrades to our computer models and observing technologies, will provide accurate and timely forecasts to protect life and property.”
Colorado State University Forecasters Agree
Forecasters in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University – Philip Klotzbach, Michael Bell, and Jhordanne Jones – on April 2 predicted a similar above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” they wrote.
