Here’s what you need to know about Clippers-Nuggets and each conference semifinals matchup.
The NBA’s conference semifinals are nearly set. The Denver Nuggets outdueled the Utah Jazz in Game 7 of their opening-round series, clinching a matchup with the LA Clippers. The Western Conference-leading Los Angeles Lakers, however, are still waiting for an opponent. Game 7 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder (9 p.m. ET Wednesday on ESPN) will decide which team faces LeBron James & Co. The Eastern Conference semis are already rolling along, as the Milwaukee Bucks dropped Game 1 to the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics took a 2-0 series lead over the defending champion Toronto Raptors. Who will advance in the bubble? Our experts break down what you need to know about the conference semifinals. Note: Our preview of the final Western Conference semifinal series will post following Game 7 between the Rockets and Thunder. Statistics provided by ESPN Stats & Information research. Jump to a series: Clippers-Nuggets| Heat-Bucks| Celtics-Raptors 2. LA Clippers Round 1: Def. Mavericks 4-2 Basketball Power Index (BPI) odds vs. Nuggets: 78% Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic proved to be more of a challenge than expected, but Round 1 was a good opening test for a Clippers team that still hasn’t seen what it can do at full power since Patrick Beverley was sidelined. The team can get disengaged at times, Montrezl Harrell is rounding into shape, and Paul George weathered an epic slump, but the Clippers got closer off the court with all the players’ meetings during last week’s boycott. Kawhi Leonard is playing like a Finals MVP, Ivica Zubac is on the rise, and Landry Shamet emerged as a playoff contributor. This group’s best basketball is surely still ahead. Biggest question after Round 1: Can Leonard get enough offensive support? Specifically, can Paul George be the other star threat that the Clippers need? George shot a combined 10-for-47 in Games 2,3 and 4, including going 4-for-25 from 3. Give him credit for sharing that he was in a “dark place” and experiencing some anxiety and depression in the isolating bubble. He rebounded with 35 points in Game 5 and 15 points,9 rebounds and 7 assists in Game 6. Dallas wasn’t good enough to take advantage of George’s struggles, but the Clippers might not be able to weather another PG slump. Matchup to watch: Kawhi Leonard vs. Jamal Murray After dealing with the versatile Doncic, Leonard and the Clippers will have to find a way to slow down the hottest guard in the playoffs. While Nikola Jokic does so much for the Nuggets’ offense, Murray has elevated his game to another level. Murray was hampered by a thigh bruise in Game 7, but he outdueled Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, averaging 31.6 points per game in the series. Leonard and George will likely have opportunities to guard Murray, as Patrick Beverley has been working his way back from a left calf injury. Clippers head coach Doc Rivers will probably want to send a wave of defenders to try to wear down Murray, but the Clippers’ pick-and-roll defense will have to be sharp and disciplined. What the stats say Kawhi Leonard closed out the first round in style, becoming the seventh player in NBA history to record 30 points,10 rebounds,5 assists and 5 steals in a playoff game and the first to do so since Gary Payton 20 years ago. Leonard has scored 30 points in five straight games, marking the second-longest 30-point playoff streak in team history, behind Bob McAdoo’s nine straight. — Ohm Youngmisuk 3. Denver Nuggets Round 1: Def. Jazz 4-3 BPI odds vs. Clippers: 22% What can be said about the Nuggets’ seven-game victory over the Jazz that hasn’t already been said? Down 3-1 and unable to stop Donovan Mitchell, Denver looked finished before it flipped the series behind Jamal Murray’s incandescent three-game streak: a combined 142 points on 81 shots in Game 4 through Game 6. Playing their third Game 7 in as many playoff series over the past two seasons, the Nuggets built a 14-point halftime lead, which helped them survive scoring just 30 points in the second half of an 80-78 fight. Biggest question after Round 1: How does Denver match up with the Clippers’ star wings? Nuggets coach Michael Malone juggled his starting lineup to get a foothold defensively against Utah, and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers’ pair of All-NBA wings with size, will create even greater challenges. Expect Malone to stick with Jerami Grant at small forward, which would allow him to defend Kawhi, the most common matchup for Denver in the regular season, according to Second Spectrum data. The other wing spot could go to Torrey Craig or Gary Harris to defend George. Matchup to watch: Jamal Murray vs. Kawhi Leonard Assuming Patrick Beverley is able to return from the calf strain that sidelined him for much of the Clippers’ opening-round win over the Mavericks, I suspect he’ll get the first shot at defending Murray. As good as Beverley is defensively, however, the matchup we want to see is Murray against the former Defensive Player of the Year. Per Second Spectrum, Leonard was the Clippers’ most common matchup for Murray, in part because Beverley missed the seeding game between the teams. Murray averaged 25.0 points per 100 matchups against Beverley but just 19.
