Five quarterbacks could go in the top 10 for the first time, according to mock drafts produced by several analysts, while the first round could pass without the selection of a running back.
Soon it will all be over — the guesses, the hunches, the smoke screens, the informed speculation, the uninformed speculation and, especially, the billions of mock drafts, which have elicited untold page views and paroxysms of internet rage but that as of around 8:15 p.m. Eastern time Thursday will be as relevant as the mock drafts released Friday for 2022. Projecting how the first round of the N.F.L. draft will unfold is a futile exercise every year, especially this one, after the pandemic battered the 2020 college football season. More than 100 Division I players opted not to play; the traditional scouting combine was canceled; and teams’ efforts to assemble comprehensive profiles on prospects, with limited game film and access to medical information, were compromised. That absence of information ratchets up the stakes for organizations but not for amateur prognosticators, who have accounted for randomness in their mock drafts but will in all likelihood nail only a few of the 32 first-round picks. According to The Huddle Report, which rates mock drafts after the actual one concludes, only 13 of the 109 forecasts last year got at least 10 first-round picks right. Still some trends and themes have already emerged in the projections this year. Some might even turn out to be true. Here’s a look at what the forecasters expect to happen — and what divides them. Never have five quarterbacks gone in the top 10 — the closest was in 1999, when five went within the first 12 picks — but many forecasters believe that this will be the year. Where opinions diverge is after the first two picks, which are expected to be used for Trevor Lawrence of Clemson (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Zach Wilson of Brigham Young (Jets). Mac Jones of Alabama is the most popular choice to land with the San Francisco 49ers, who traded up nine spots in March to get the No.3 pick. Justin Fields of Ohio State has often been projected to land with the Carolina Panthers at No.8 or with the New England Patriots, who would probably have to move up from No.15 to take him. Peter King of NBC Sports wrote not to dismiss the Panthers, even though they acquired Sam Darnold in a trade with the Jets this month. “Owner David Tepper has made no secret that finding a franchise quarterback has to be job one, two, three and four for the team,” King wrote of Carolina.
