“Free Guy,” a sci-fi action comedy starring Ryan Reynolds, is expected to lead the domestic box office.
“Free Guy,” a sci-fi action comedy starring Ryan Reynolds, is expected to finish first at the domestic box office. The PG-13 film is on track to debut to $15 million and $18 million from 4,100 North American theaters, with some projections showing ticket sales could reach $20 million. A debut below $20 million would be disappointing, since the Disney and 20th Century Studio’s movie cost more than $100 million to produce. Internationally, “Free Guy” is premiering this weekend in most major overseas markets, excluding China, where it doesn’t have a release date yet. The release of “Free Guy” is significant because it’s the first Disney film in about a year to have a traditional theatrical rollout. “Free Guy” will be available only in theaters for 45 days, halving the 90-day frame of big-screen exclusivity that was commonplace prior to COVID-19. These days, movie theater owners, who have been struggling during the pandemic, would take any period of exclusivity. Recent Disney movies, such as “Jungle Cruise,” “Cruella” and “Black Widow,” were offered on Disney Plus for a premium $30 fee on the same day as their respective theatrical debuts. Other Disney releases, like “Mulan” and Pixar’s “Luca,” skipped theaters entirely and landed directly on Disney Plus at no extra cost to subscribers. Box office results for “Free Guy,” as well as the studio’s Marvel tentpole “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” in early September, could carry considerable weight and dictate the way Disney releases its movies — at least for the foreseeable future. Back in May, Disney was intentional in saying only “Free Guy” and “Shang-Chi” would play in theaters for 45 days before transitioning to home viewing on VOD and streaming. The studio has been vague about whether upcoming high-profile movies — namely Marvel’s “Eternals” (Nov.5), “West Side Story” (Dec.10) and “The King’s Man” (Dec.22) — will screen only in cinemas or day-and-date on Disney Plus. “Flexibility is a key component of our distribution strategy,” Disney’s CEO Bob Chapek said at the time. That’s a reality that movie theater owners will have to accept as the box office mounts a rocky revival.
