No one knows when — or even if — Russia will invade Ukraine, but there sure are a lot of predictions.
The war between Russia and Ukraine was supposed to start today, or maybe it was yesterday. Actually, the Ukrainian leader says Wednesday. Or does he? Monday afternoon, American news outlets startled markets when they reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video, “We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack.” His spokesperson later clarified that he had been merely referencing other public media reports, and many journalists noted that Zelensky, a former comedian, was being sarcastic. The mid-afternoon misunderstanding was the messiest episode in a string of frantic forecasts and much quieter walk-backs, as American and European officials try to surmise the next steps in a possible war — a war that may or may not happen. Russia has gathered some 130,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and demanded certain concessions from the West to de-escalate. Moscow has denied intentions to invade, but diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States and its allies — including a phone call Saturday between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin — have not yet yielded any solutions. Against this backdrop, the world is reading between every line along the way. Among all of the confident predictions being made, it often feels like we’re in a situation where no one knows anything. Everyone’s an expert on when the ground freezes just enough to allow tanks to roll across the Ukrainian border — or maybe the muddiness factor doesn’t matter much anyway. Seasoned analysts are making predictions based on when Putin invaded Ukraine last time (days after the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia) or when he invaded neighboring Georgia (during the 2008 Beijing Olympics). Some prognosticators predicted that Putin would wait until after this year’s Olympics in order to avoid angering Chinese leader Xi Jinping. But on Friday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said, “It may well happen soon,” which is to say, before the Games end. This isn’t to say that nothing is knowable, just that it’s worth embracing some skepticism.
