Why Ukraine staying out of NATO is emerging as a possible settlement to end the war.
Even as the war in Ukraine rages, officials from Ukraine and Russia are in negotiations to find a way to end the conflict. And neutrality is one of the key principles Kyiv and Moscow are reportedly negotiating right now. The idea of Ukraine serving as a neutral bridge between Russia and the West is not new. But one month into a war in which Ukrainian resistance has scuttled Russia’s larger war aims, the idea has regained cachet as a solution to help stop the devastation in Ukraine — and to guard against future conflict. In broad terms, Ukrainian neutrality would likely force it to abandon its ambitions of ever joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and forgo hosting any NATO installations on its territory, likely in exchange for some sort of security guarantees, to prevent Russia from launching another invasion. Both Ukraine and Russia may find something palatable in it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that Ukraine will not actually join NATO, and Ukrainian officials have indicated they’re open to discussing Ukraine’s status. It may also be something Russia could accept, if keeping NATO out of Ukraine, and away from Russia’s borders, is an outcome Russian President Vladimir Putin could spin at home. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said that a deal for a neutral Ukraine could be a “kind of compromise.” Ukrainian neutrality, said Pascal Lottaz, assistant professor for neutrality studies at the Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, may be the only option “where all the parties — the Russians, the Ukrainians, and the US and NATO — would basically sit down and say, ‘Fine, we can accept that; fine, we can live with that.’” But it will depend on the details. Ukraine formally abandoned its neutral status in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Eastern Ukraine. Putin’s grievances ahead of the war went far beyond Ukraine’s possible — but also extremely unlikely — NATO membership, and so Russia may have a different version of neutrality in mind. Indeed, Putin’s other stated goal of “demilitarization” of Ukraine hints at that. “Neutrality — that term is used here, but it’s not really what any of this is about,” said Mark Kramer, director of the Cold War Studies Project at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. “It’s about complete subservience, and I think that’s what Ukrainians have thoroughly rejected.” Russia, in attacking Ukraine, trampled over its own international agreements and obligations, which is going to make neutrality — or potentially any brokered deal — require more than Putin’s signature. Some combination of the world’s powerful countries is likely going to have to get involved, including possibly the United States, Europe, NATO, even China. These countries may have to decide how far they are willing to go to assure Ukraine’s neutrality, if it comes to that. And if NATO, say, becomes a guarantor of Ukraine’s neutral status, suddenly Ukraine doesn’t seem so neutral after all. A neutral Ukraine, then, might sound fine to everyone. But neutrality only works because countries see it in their political and security interests to respect that status — and, as bombs continue to fall, it is not yet clear Russia sees it that way, too. What might a neutral Ukraine look like? Let’s look around the neighborhood. Europe is no stranger to neutral states, whether in 19th century Europe or during the Cold War. As Ulrika Möller, associate professor in political science at the University of Gothenburg said, neutrality is an instrument for smaller states to protect their own political integrity against a major neighbor or regional power. As she put it: “We want to stay alive, so what do we have to do to stay alive?” Maartje Abbenhuis, a war historian at the University of Auckland, said that often the thing we call neutrality is actually “neutralization,” where “the world agrees to remove something out of the foreign policy, so everybody agrees not to attack it.” A version of “neutralization” is likely in store for Ukraine. Although Kyiv may agree to adopt a policy of neutrality, if it sticks, it will be because Ukraine, Russia, and the West see it in their interest to preserve that status. Russia would agree to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but that also likely means NATO’s open door to Ukrainian membership would close. Ukraine would have some company in Europe among neutral, or non-aligned states. Austria, Finland, Sweden, Ireland, and Malta are all neutral or nonaligned countries within the European Union. Switzerland, famously, is neutral, though not in the EU. All those countries have militaries since they still have the right to defend themselves if someone violates that neutrality. Some, like Switzerland and Sweden, have embraced a version of neutrality for centuries. Others adopted it out of both outside pressure and necessity, like Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia.
