Russia has already lost the war, even if it wins in donbas.
The war in Ukraine grinds on. Now in its ninth week, the war …
Russia has already lost the war, even if it wins in donbas. The war in Ukraine grinds on. Now in its ninth week, the war has moved to Donbas, in Eastern Ukraine. We are hearing less out of that region than we heard from the fighting around Kyiv before. This is likely because the war is more kinetic and open than the ambush-style, shoot-and-scoot engagements of the early weeks. It seems likely there will be more large collisions of massed formations. Ukrainian casualties are likely higher than before. Insofar as much of our war video footage on social media comes from the Ukrainians, we are probably seeing less because the war has become harder for them. The terrain of Donbas advantages the Russians. But even as Russia bludgeons its way into limited gains in the east, it has lost so much already in the conflict, that it is a catastrophe for Russian national power. Indeed, some observers think Ukraine may win the war outright. But even if it holds bits of the conquered east and south, these are vastly outweighed by the war’s costs: Ukraine will shortly have one of the best armies in Europe This is the richest irony of the invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin pretty clearly expected a blitzkrieg. He would roll in, replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly with a pro-Russian stooge, and roll out. The whole thing would be over before the West had time to mobilize. Putin, it seems, believed his own propaganda that Ukraine was a fake country. Instead, he collided with a wall of patriotic Ukrainian troopers and civilians.
