Some pundits say that Democrats will win the midterms.
MSNBC tells us, “Democrats are seeing momentum headed into midterms.” Nancy Pelosi claimed, “We will hold the House by winning.
Some pundits say that Democrats will win the midterms.
MSNBC tells us, “Democrats are seeing momentum headed into midterms.” Nancy Pelosi claimed, “We will hold the House by winning more seats!”
Really? Want to bet?
This fall, CNN’s Douglas Brinkley said, “There is a blue wave going on right now.”
Michael Moore agreed, “There is going to be such a landslide” of elected Democrats.
At the time those predictions were made, people who bet on elections believed Republicans had better than a 70% chance of winning back the House.
Whom should we trust?
We can listen to:
No. 1: People who bet.
No. 2: The media pundits.
No. 3: Polls.
No. 4: Professional election forecasters.
Among forecasters, Nate Silver has the best track record. As I write, his FiveThirtyEight website gives Democrats a 55% chance to hold the Senate. The Economist’s forecasters give Democrats even better odds.
But I don’t believe them.
I believe the people who bet. That’s the topic of my latest video.
At the moment, the bettors think Republicans have a 60% chance to win the Senate and an 88% chance to win the House.
I take these numbers from ElectionBettingOdds.com, a website I helped start.
