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Democrats are feeling optimistic about winning Tuesday’s Senate runoff in Georgia between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker, a victory that would give the party a 51st seat.
There are a number of reasons for the high hopes.
The party thinks it has a top candidate in Warnock, a reverend who serves as senior pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, the former pulpit of Martin Luther King Jr.
Warnock won a runoff in 2021, and he received more votes than Walker on Election Day.
Walker, endorsed by former President Trump, has been battered by controversies throughout the campaign, and his links to Trump may be hurting him more than they are helping him in the contest.
While Democrats expect the final tally will be close, many in and outside Georgia say the early voting numbers and momentum from November also are highly positive signs for Warnock and his party.
“I am very bullish on Georgia. No BS,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). “I know it’s close, but the early-voting turnout is very promising.”
Early voter turnout is key for Democrats because Republicans are expected to have an edge in Tuesday’s voting.
A survey by Emerson College and The Hill late last week found Warnock with a 2-point lead. Among those surveyed who had already voted, Warnock had a 29-point advantage.
“Looking at where most of the early-voting is happening … by my analysis and what I’ve read, looks really promising,” added Van Hollen, who chaired the Senate Democratic campaign arm during the 2018 midterms.
Warnock won a victory in a Senate runoff election against Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in January 2021, the same day Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) won his runoff. That gave Democrats the Senate majority in a 50-50 chamber by virtue of Vice President Harris’s tiebreaking vote.
A victory this year would give Democrats more wiggle room.
Democrats note that in the 2021 runoffs, Ossoff and Warnock both had more time to campaign.
“I don’t think he’s taken anything for granted,” one Democratic operative with ties to the state said of Warnock.
