The GOP’s internal war of attrition begins.
The year was 2015. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) was resigning under pressure from his right flank, and the GOP was struggling to find anyone who could gain the majority required to succeed him. The GOP ultimately convinced Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) to seek the post, reasoning — perhaps correctly — that he was the one man who could get enough votes from both the tea party and the more establishment wing of the party.
We’re about to find out whether the Republican Party can find someone — anyone — who can get the requisite votes, in a much more tenuous situation. It now has a mere 10-seat majority, and if all members vote, the speaker can shed only four from their party and still squeak by.
The result will say a lot about whether the Republican Party, which asks Americans to empower it to govern, can effectively govern itself.
McCarthy’s hopes appear to be dwindling. Not only did 19 Republicans vote against him on the first and second ballots, but the number grew slightly on the third, with rising star Rep.-elect Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) becoming the 20th vote against McCarthy and making a pragmatic case for trying to find an alternative. Things are trending in the wrong direction for McCarthy. (All elected members of the House keep the “elect” on their title for now, since no one has been sworn in.)
The last time a speaker race went to multiple ballots was 100 years ago, and the GOP also had a bigger majority then. We’re in such uncharted territory that it’s difficult to figure out what happens from here. But we can start by surmising whether McCarthy is (and was) a bad candidate for speaker — and whether there’s anybody out there who could bridge the divide in the party.
All of the readily apparent alternatives have drawbacks that could forfeit five or many more votes.
House GOP No. 2 Steve Scalise (R-La.) is the most obvious replacement and is more conservative than McCarthy, but he carries some of that same baggage with the House Freedom Caucus by virtue of serving in leadership. Rep.-elect Elise Stefanik (R-N.
