Ukraine president’s comments come as analysts suggest Ukrainian forces are carrying out a ‘limited fighting withdrawal’; Chinese foreign minister says Moscow and Beijing will be a ‘a driving force’ for the world
Ukraine’s ongoing defence of the besieged city of Bakhmut is forcing Russian to engage in a costly battle for a city that “isn’t intrinsically important operationally or strategically”, according to the Institute of Study of War (ISW).
In its latest update released on Tuesday the ISW has become “strategically significant [for Ukraine] due to the current composition of Russian forces there.”
It says that while there is a risk Ukraine is “expending its own elite manpower and scarce equipment on mainly Wagner prison recruits who are mere cannon fodder” it suggests the large numbers of convicts Wagner has recruited is “not limitless” and “the permanent elimination of tens of thousands of them in Bakhmut means that they will not be available for more important fights”.
The ISW also added that Wagner has drawn upon its “elite elements” which have been supported by Russian airborne units.
The opportunity to damage the Wagner Group’s elite elements, along with other elite units if they are committed, in a defensive urban warfare setting where the attrition gradient strongly favors Ukraine is an attractive one.
Recent statements from Wager Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin about concerns over a lack of ammunition suggest he fears his forces are being sacrificed “to the last man” by the Russian Ministry of Defence, the ISW says.
Maps released by the Institute for Study of War showing ground movements as of Monday suggest Russian forces have taken 40% of Bakhmut after a nine-month-long campaign.
The developments come after Volodymyr Zelenskiy committed Ukrainian armed forces to defend the besieged city amidst conditions one commander has described as “hell on earth”. Earlier on Monday the ISW suggested Russian forces would not be able to capitalise on any gains even if they were to capture the city and that Ukraine’s defence was creating conditions for a future counteroffensive.
Here are today’s control-of-terrain maps of #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats.
Interactive map, updated daily: https://t.co/hwgxTnU2Tr
Archive of time-lapse maps, updated monthly: https://t.co/IT6FiqwgGO pic.twitter.com/VqU3KrrLEW— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 7, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s vow to defend Bakhmut following a meeting with senior military officials may be at odds with the developing situation on the ground.
Michael Kofman, director of studies at the CAN think tank in Arlington Virginia, and one of the few observers to have correctly called Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, said on Sunday that a continued defence of Bakhmut “doesn’t plan to Ukraine’s advantage as a force”.
