The June hiring figure was a small increase, but it points to a durable labor market that has produced a historically high number of advertised openings.
America’s employers pulled back on hiring in June but still delivered another month of solid job gains, evidence of a durable economy that has defied persistent forecasts of a recession.
The latest sign of economic strength — a gain of 209,000 jobs last month — makes it all but certain that the Federal Reserve will resume its interest rate hikes later this month after having ended a streak of 10 rate increases that were intended to curb high inflation.
The June hiring figure reported by the government Friday is the smallest in 2 1/2 years but still pointed to a healthy labor market that has produced a historically high number of advertised openings. The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6%, near a five-decade low.
Yet there were also signs in Friday’s report that the job market is cooling to a more sustainable pace of growth — a trend that, if sustained, could reassure the Fed that its rate hikes are cooling inflation pressures without derailing the economy.
“This is kind of a Goldilocks report,” said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, an economic research firm. “It’s a resilient labor market — not too hot, not too cool.”
Most of last month’s job growth came in three broad categories that are largely insulated from economic trends: State and local governments, health care providers and private education. Together, they added 133,000 jobs. Because those sectors don’t depend on robust consumer spending as much as the rest of the economy does, their hiring gains don’t really reflect rising consumer demand — the main fuel for inflation.
Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, noted that excluding government hiring, private-sector job gains totaled 149,000 in June, a pace that does not necessarily point to an overheating economy that would alarm the Fed.
