Xi Jinping needs Vladimir Putin to remain in power, and Russia to maintain stability, to help uphold the countries’ shared interests and to keep challenging the United States.
Just three months ago, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, was in Moscow clinking glasses with Vladimir V. Putin and expressing his confidence in the “firm support” the Russian president enjoyed among his people.
That confidence is now in question, after the Wagner private military group waged an insurrection in Russia that has shaken Mr. Putin’s image of invulnerability. Close watchers of China say that the mutiny, short-lived as it was, could lead Mr. Xi to hedge a close relationship with Russia that had already exposed Beijing to global criticism and threatened some of its interests abroad.
China views Russia as a necessary partner in challenging the global order dominated by the United States. But Mr. Putin’s appetite for risk — seen in his invasion of Ukraine and his reliance on private armies — has forced Beijing to defend its bond with Russia in the face of Western pressure.
Mr. Xi’s long-term bet will work only if Mr. Putin remains in control to help uphold the shared interests of both countries. But the revolt has raised questions about Mr. Putin’s authority: Wagner soldiers faced little to no resistance from regular Russian forces as they advanced on Moscow. And Mr. Putin’s decision to grant sanctuary in Belarus to Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the uprising, smacked of a compromise rather than the act of a strongman with consolidated power.
“It makes China realize that the Putin government’s internal politics are actually quite fragile,” said Xiao Bin, a researcher for the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “The fragility existed before, but it has increased ever since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.”
China has publicly reaffirmed its support for the Kremlin following the insurrection, and analysts say the relationship is likely to remain strong, at least on the outside, because of how the two leaders’ interests align.
But the mutiny has probably also forced Beijing to consider how its own geopolitical, economic and territorial interests would be affected if Mr. Putin were to suddenly be toppled. That could lead China to distance itself from Russia to some degree.
In the 23 years Mr. Putin has been in power, Russia’s relations with China have improved markedly from the Soviet era and the days of President Boris Yeltsin, when the two sides sent dozens of military divisions to face off against each other along the 2,600-mile border they share.
