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There has been a strategic battle taking place in the South China Sea this year between China and the Philippines. As you probably know, China has laid claim to most of the South China Sea and over the past decade has been using a strategy called the cabbage strategy to gradually claim individual islands.
The cabbage strategy involves surrounding islands with Chinese boats like the leaves of a cabbage. China starts with fishing vessels, dozens of which anchor around an island or shoal making it difficult for any other vessels to approach. Once that’s done, Chinese Coast Guard vessels move in to surround the fishing boats and formally prevent other boats from coming close. Having established control, the fishing boats go away and sends in construction equipment to militarize the island.
One of the islands China has its eyes on is called Ayungin Shoal or, to foreigners, Second Thomas Shoal. Ayungin Shoal is only a few miles east of Mischief Reef, an area that China has already claimed and heavily militarized. Both islands are well within the Philippines exclusive economic zone which stretches 200 miles to sea from the coast. Here’s a map showing Ayungin Shoal on the right and Mischief Reef on the left.
And here’s what Mischief Reef looked like in 2017 after China claimed it:
There was some outrage after the water cannon incident but China pressed its luck claiming a former president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, had recognized their claim to the island.
