A POLITICO analysis shows which Iowa caucusgoers warmed up to Trump, and who is still holding out.
Former President Donald Trump’s dominant victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday showed just how much the party has coalesced around him in the last eight years — and which voters are still resisting that realignment.
The former president improved on his margins all across the state compared to the 2016 caucuses, winning all but one of Iowa’s counties and 87 percent of the state’s 1,657 precincts. He finished more than 30 points ahead of his closest rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
But his takeover of the GOP electorate was not complete. Nearly half of voters, 49 percent, backed another candidate on Monday. And Trump’s performance was not consistently strong in all areas, according to a POLITICO analysis of precinct-level results and entrance polls.
He showed striking weakness in suburban and urban areas: In more than three dozen precincts in the suburbs, Trump received less than a quarter of the vote, even while achieving blowout wins of 90-plus percent of votes cast in a similar number of rural precincts. That pattern, hidden under Trump’s commanding overall performance, echoes a trend that has bedeviled Republicans over the past few election cycles.
So while the data show how Trump has managed to consolidate a majority of Republican support, it also reveals his relative vulnerability among suburban and highly educated voters — raising questions about how he will win over a voting bloc that has long viewed him with skepticism and helped fuel his 2020 loss.
With a smaller GOP field and his quasi-incumbent status, Trump improved upon his previous Iowa caucus performance just about everywhere in the state.
The former president — who once struggled with Iowa’s evangelical voters and lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in the state — gained the most ground in the places where he was weakest eight years ago, according to a POLITICO analysis of precinct results from both elections. Several dozen precincts gave Trump less than 10 percent of their caucus vote eight years ago; this year, he won 35 percent of the vote in those areas.
