Harris’s polling has improved. But has it improved by enough for her to win?
Kamala Harris entered the presidential race a little over two weeks ago as an underdog.
Since then, Democrats’ vibes have been fantastic — and Harris’s polling has gotten better. But it hasn’t improved as much as you might think. At least not yet.
Per polls, Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win. But Harris hasn’t taken a clear lead either. Polling, particularly in swing states, suggests an extremely close race that could go either way.
To be clear: This is a major improvement for Democrats, as compared to where President Joe Biden’s numbers had been.
Late last year, Trump gained a durable poll lead on Biden nationally and in nearly every swing state. For Democrats, erasing that lead is a very big deal, and it helps explain the Trump campaign’s flailing of late. The Trump team thought they were sure to beat Biden, and now they are no longer so sure.
But a Harris win also looks very far from certain. That’s in part because, due to the magic of the Electoral College, national polls don’t determine the outcome, swing states do. And the state of play in swing states is murky.
Last week’s Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls were encouraging for Harris overall, showing her taking a big lead in Michigan and smaller leads in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. The catch is that they also showed Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, plus a tie in Georgia. If those polls were accurate, the election would come down entirely to Georgia’s outcome.
