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The leftists in the mainstream media are soiling themselves over historian Allan Lichtman’s updated election prediction model, the “Keys to the White House,” which has accurately predicted the results of every election since 1984.
On Thursday, he revealed that his model predicts that Kamala Harris will win the election.
“The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said an op-ed video for The New York Times. “At least, that’s my prediction for this race.”
The unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president’s party.
If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger — Trump — is predicted to win.
Here are the keys and Lichtman’s rating for each:
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
