Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points in a pair of new surveys that show her expanding her lead after Tuesday’s debate—after her polling lead over Trump had plateaued weeks earlier.Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 50% to 45% in a Morning Consult poll taken Wednesday and 47% to 42% in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed Thursday
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris leads Trump, 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still leads him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Trump led Harris 48%-47% among likely voters in a Times/Siena poll taken Sept. 3-6, equal to the former president’s one-point advantage six weeks ago—marking one of Trump’s first leads by a major pollster since Fox News found him up 50%-49% in early August (the Times/Siena survey had a margin of error of 2.8 points).
Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll, and Harris led Trump by two points in a Sept. 1-3 Economist/YouGov survey, consistent with results from a week earlier (she led Trump by three points in an Aug. 17-20 survey and two points in an Aug. 11-13 poll by the Economist and YouGov).
Harris has a 50%-46% lead with all registered voters and a 52%-46% lead with likely voters, an Ipsos/ABC News poll taken Aug. 23-27 found, essentially unchanged from Harris’ four-point edge among registered voters and five-point lead with likely voters two weeks earlier (margin of error 2 points).
The vice president was up more than five points in both two-way (52.6% to 47.4%) and five-way (49.5% to 44%) matchups with third-party candidates on the ballot, according to an Outward Intelligence survey of 2,191 likely voters taken Aug. 25-29.
Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug.
