Here is what the surveys say as the neck-and-neck race heads towards the finish line.
Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over Donald Trump in the 2024 race with four weeks to go until election day.
Polling and forecasters suggest that Harris is marginally ahead of the former president in terms of national averages. If they translate to election results, Harris will win the popular vote in November.
Harris also has a marginal lead in terms of the swing states, which could determine who wins the 2024 election overall. The entire election may come down to who wins the 19 Electoral College votes in the neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania, a state where Harris currently has a razor-thin average lead.
The Democrat’s clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the one Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Polling aggregator and forecaster 538 currently has Harris just ahead of Trump in these three battleground states, and with a significant advantage in Nebraska’s 2nd district, meaning the vice president would reach the required 270 Electoral College vote threshold.
538 also has Harris ahead in Nevada with four weeks to go. This gives the vice president a projected 276 Electoral College votes score in November, barring any shock results elsewhere.
Trump’s most efficient path to victory would be to win the battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, giving the Republican exactly 270 Electoral College votes. The former president could also beat Harris by winning the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and flipping just one of Michigan or Wisconsin.How National Polling Averages Look
According to 538, Harris is leading Trump on average by 2.6 points (48.5 percent to 45.9 percent) with four weeks to go.
Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecast model, gives Harris a larger national average lead over Trump of 3 points (49.2 percent to 46.2 percent).
The national average from RealClearPolitics, which tends to favor Republican polling groups, has Harris leading by 2.1 points (48.9 percent to 46.8 percent).
Newsweek has contacted the two campaign teams for comment via email.Swing State PollingPennsylvania
With both Harris’ and Trump’s clearest path to victories involving Pennsylvania, the results in the Keystone State will be most eagerly watched.
Polling suggests Pennsylvania could still go either way, with 538 showing Harris with a marginal average lead of 0.7 points (48 percent to 47.3 percent).
An OnMessage survey on behalf of the Sentinel Action Fund said Harris and Trump are tied on 47 percent in Pennsylvania.
