Donald Trump’s poll numbers are better than in 2016 or 2020, but the race against Kamala Harris remains close.
Former President Donald Trump is polling stronger than he was at this point in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but the race against Vice President Kamala Harris remains close, according to recent polling averages.
The 2024 presidential campaign is entering its final few weeks, with polls showing Trump and Harris separated by narrow margins in battleground states. In 2016 and 2020, polls suggested former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden respectively held stronger leads over Trump than Harris at the same point in those elections.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) on Tuesday gave Harris a 1.4 point lead over Trump nationally, with swing states being even closer or breaking in favor of the former president.
The average is Trump’s strongest RCP average in mid-October. The pollster gave Biden a 9.4 point lead and Clinton a 6.7 point lead.
Polls were several points off, skewing more toward Democrats than the eventual results, in both elections. Clinton won the popular vote by about two points in 2016, losing the Electoral College, while Biden won the popular vote by about 4.5 points in 2020 and coasted in securing electoral votes, 306-232.
Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told Newsweek that the race may appear closer this year due to ever-changing methodologies, a historically tight race and improvements to aggregation.
“Let’s also not forget what 2016 and 2020 looked like—incredibly close races in the end that, while a winner may have seemed evident, a standard-sized polling error could—and did, in 2016—upend what polls were saying prior to Election Day”, she said.
“Polling from these past election cycles got swept up in a narrative that a Democratic win was certain instead of recognizing the inherent uncertainty that statistical estimates from polls present and that a few point lead—even if consistent—does not guarantee a win”, Koning added.
