Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Topline
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead-heat race for the White House according to the latest poll—the third major national poll in a row that found the two tied—keeping the race wildly unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.Key Facts
Emerson College Polling survey (October 23-24) released Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% one week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and it’s the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris hasn’t enjoyed a lead since August.
Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in the Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even when they’ve lost the White House, The Times notes.
The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since The Times’ previous poll in early October that showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three surveys over the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage and six others found Harris leading.
The candidates are also dead even, at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS poll released Friday (margin of error 3.1), also representing a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups’ September survey, while their poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race found Trump with 49% and Harris with 46%.
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
