Newsweek pitted two GenAI chatbots, ChatGPT and Grok, against each other to see what they said about which presidential candidate might win key swing states.
With 28 days until the 2024 U.S. presidential election and polls putting Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck, swing states will be scrutinized closer than ever.
Seven key states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—hold the balance of power when it comes to Electoral College votes that will decide the election.
Florida isn’t considered a key swing state for 2024. Former President Donald Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, and while a recent poll suggests he has a very slight chance of losing the state this time around, it is mostly acknowledged that the state may not be as tightly contested as it was in previous elections.
With hundreds of polls as of October 6, it’s anyone’s game. A recent poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for example, found that Vice President Kamala Harris is trusted slightly more than former President Donald Trump when it comes to crime.
Taking three recent polls, Data for Progress, RMG Research/Napolitan News Service, and Rasmussen Reports, there is a three-point lead for Harris, a tie, and a two-point lead for Trump, respectively.
To explore how the dynamics of this election might unfold, Newsweek decided to pit two generative AI systems against each other: the vastly popular ChatGPT from OpenAI and Elon Musk’s recently launched Grok AI. What do these chatbots, armed with vast amounts of data, think about who will prevail in these pivotal swing states?
We asked both: “Can you breakdown who you believe will win in each swing state between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Swing states are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Can you look at recent polling to inform your decision?”
Let’s look at the data, state by state:Arizona
“Polls indicate Trump has gained a notable lead in Arizona, with some sources suggesting Trump is leading Harris by over 20 points. The state seems to be trending toward Trump, driven by voter concerns about the economy and immigration.”
“Recent posts suggest a close race, with some indicating a slight lead for Trump, while others mention Harris leading. Given the variability, Arizona could be considered a toss-up, but there’s a slight edge toward Trump based on some polls mentioning a narrow lead.”
Analyzing the polls, both GenAI chatbots are leaning toward Trump for Arizona.Georgia
“Georgia is one of the tightest battlegrounds. Recent polls have the race nearly tied, with both Harris and Trump polling at 49 percent each.
