The Cook Political Report shifted Wisconsin’s Senate race to the “toss-up” category amid a tight presidential race in the state.
Wisconsin’s Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde was reclassified as a “toss-up” by a major election forecaster on Tuesday, less than a month to Election Day.
Baldwin has been viewed as favored in the Badger State, which remains viewed as a toss-up in the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. But the Cook Political Report reclassified it from “Lean Democrat” to a “toss-up” after their latest poll showed her lead shrink to only two points, within the margin of error.
Baldwin and Hovde are facing off in what is expected to be one of the closest Senate races ahead of November 5, when control for the Senate is up for grabs. Republicans are increasingly optimistic about their chances of flipping the Senate due to a spade of strong polls in the Montana race, making it all the more important for Democrats to defend seats they currently hold to have a shot at retaining their slim control.
Henrik M. Schatzinger, a professor of political science at Ripon College outside Green Bay, told Newsweek the toss-up designation could reflect the tightening presidential race, though he believes Baldwin still has an edge.
“I don’t see how Hovde has found a message that sticks in voters’ minds and seriously hurts Badwin’s reputation. Among registered voters, 60 percent still believe that Baldwin is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin”, he said.
The Cook reclassification could convince outside groups to begin investing more money in the race “now that they have some outside confirmation that the seat can be flipped”, he said.
Polls have shown Baldwin with a consistent lead over Hovde, though her advantage has narrowed. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate, Baldwin held a 5-point lead over Hovde on Tuesday; this compares to a 5.9 point lead on September 8 and a 6.6 point lead on August 8.
A Marquette Law School poll, considered the gold standard for Wisconsin political surveys, found Baldwin with a 6-point lead over Hovde in their latest poll.
