While Putin conducts his missile diplomacy, restrictions around the use of long-range weapons may help Kyiv
In Kyiv, as autumn turns fast turns to winter, Ukrainians in the government describe a vacuum before the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House on 20 January that will be filled by more war as both sides jockey for advantage. “Trump has said he wants to end the war within 24 hours. Nobody is more interested in this topic than Ukraine,” a senior official told the Guardian.
“But the problem is, for the moment, everything is just speculation. Will it be the first peace plan, the second plan, the first variant, the 10th variant?” they said. Ukraine is in “a difficult but not catastrophic position” and has little choice but to fight on and perhaps show Trump that backing Kyiv is not a losing bet.
What helped this week was an 11th hour change of heart by the current US president, Joe Biden, whose White House briefed on Sunday that the US would allow its Atacms missiles, with a range of 190 miles (306km), to be used on targets inside Russia. Ukraine had been asking for permission for years, arguing that it has been unable to hit barracks, airfields and logistics sites in the Russian rear.
“Finally, at the end of Biden’s term, the White House is more helpful. But it can’t compensate for delays in previous years,” the official said. Russia now holds the military initiative in large parts of the eastern front, where it is gradually swallowing up the town of Kurakhove, even if its casualty rate was approximately 1,350 a day in October, according to British estimates. “The frontline is now less stable than at any time since the early days of the full-scale Russian invasion,” warned the British defence secretary, John Healey, on Thursday.
Even so, the permission came with another limitation.
