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You can’t tell who’s who in the renewed Syrian civil war without a scorecard, but so far, the big loser might be Russia. Before we get to Vlad Putin’s Middle East headache, enjoy a quick rundown of who’s doing what to whom — and, please, keep in mind that the situation is fluid—and bloody.
The civil war was mostly quiet until Saturday when rebels striking from the northwest took the strategic city of Aleppo. The advance was so swift that rebels captured everything from artillery to tanks to light attack jets. Iran-backed Iraqi Shiite forces moved in from the east to aid the regime.
With an assist from Russian airpower, Bashar al-Assad put together a defensive line south of fallen Aleppo at Hama. Should Hama fall, that would threaten Assad’s control of Tartus — and Russia’s only naval base in the Med. If rebels managed to take and hold Tartus, that would put a big crimp in Russia’s ability to support Assad and end Moscow’s power projection in the Mediterranean.
Here’s the scorecard, kept as brief as possible:
The civil war effectively partitioned the country. ISIS remnants still control minor parts of eastern Syria, while various Kurdish militias control the northeast.
In Syria’s north, Turkey established a buffer zone to help control the flow of “migrants” into their country. Turkey also has a longstanding Kurdish problem and has focused on suppressing Kurdish autonomy in northern and eastern Syria.
