Our World Cup “market-based” Power Ratings, which are derived from the impact the sharpest influences have on the betting markets, can help you visualize…
Our World Cup “market-based” Power Ratings, which are derived from the impact the sharpest influences have on the betting markets, can help you visualize the full scope of the brackets. Ratings are on a decimal scale, as relative parity creates a universe where most teams are separated by fractions of a goal.
You can see below that France is a slight favorite over Argentina on Saturday, and would be about a half-goal favorite over the winner of Uruguay/Portugal based on recent pricing. Use those numbers in parenthesis for a quick sense of any possible future matchups.
Top quarter (Saturday)
Uruguay (2.0) vs. Portugal (2.0)
France (2.5) vs. Argentina (2.3)
Second quarter (Monday)
Brazil (2.8) vs. Mexico (1.7)
Belgium (2.5) vs. Japan (1.2)
Third quarter (Sunday)
Spain (2.5) vs. Russia (1.8)
Croatia (2.3) vs. Denmark (1.7)
Bottom quarter (Tuesday)
Switzerland (1.7) vs. Sweden (1.6)
England (2.4) vs. Colombia (2.0)
Barring upsets, France and Argentina both have four-game gauntlets. No other favorite could face more than three opponents currently rated at 2.0 or better on our scale. Mexico and Japan have the most daunting pathways as longshots. — Jeff Fogle
