The United States military withdrawal from Syria has drawn universal condemnation from everyone but Vladimir Putin. The odd, mistimed strategy may have some very strange, and hideous, consequences.
Washington
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The United States military withdrawal from Syria has drawn universal condemnation from everyone but Vladimir Putin. The odd, mistimed strategy may have some very strange, and hideous, consequences.
The US military will be withdrawn from Syria on the orders of President Trump. The Defense Secretary, General (ret.) Jim Mattis, resigned in response. US media has been loud in its condemnation.
The world’s most continuous war zone
Peace in the Middle East is a theory, endless war is the reality. If you look at a timeline of Middle East conflicts, there is and never has been such a thing as peace in this region since 1902. (The timeline is amazing, even now, there are conflicts and incidents which are barely reported.) Barbarism is the method, brutality is the preferred option, and the Syrian civil war could look like a footnote to what may follow. The US withdrawal will simply revert the local wars to their normal state, and that’s very bad news for the entire Middle East.
Players and moves in Syria
Russia is now the main foreign player in Syria, in line with long-held Russian strategy in the region. The US withdrawal underlines Russia’s physical dominance. While Vladimir Putin was almost the sole international voice agreeing with Trump’s move, pundits have predicted that the move will open the floodgates for repression, an Islamic State resurgence, and more conflicts.
Iran, the big regional player in Syria, hasn’t said much, and is hardly likely to say anything which supports US strategy, whether it’s about Syria or anything else. Many experts point out that Iran now has a substantial array of forces deployed from Iraq to Syria, and that these forces now have even less oversight as a result of the US withdrawal.
Turkey, meanwhile, is threatening to send troops in to Syria, another odd twist in a situation which was already strange enough. Turkey is a US ally and NATO member, and could come in conflict with virtually any other force in Syria, including Iranian, Russian, Islamic State, Kurdish, and other groups.
All analysts agree that Islamic State still has about 15 – 30,000 fighters still active, and that it could come back to life in Syria if the US leaves a gap it can exploit. This is a general threat to all parties, and underlines the total lack of solid basis for even theoretical peace in Syria or the region as a whole.
The Syrian government, meanwhile, wants to finish off the remaining Syrian rebels. This objective is pretty much to the exclusion of all other considerations. The fact that the Syrian government is now totally dependent on foreign support doesn’t seem to be an issue.
Israel stands on the sidelines, prepared to attack any threats, but now faced with a Syria where it has no friends and many heavily armed enemies. Israel is the loser in this equation, where no outcome can make its northern border secure, and anyone or anything can be an active threat.
