Juan Guaido says he is president of Venezuela. So too, of course, does Nicolas Maduro, the authoritarian leader who has ruled the crisis-ravaged country since the death of his mentor Hu
Andrew Rosati
January 25 2019 2:30 AM
Juan Guaido says he is president of Venezuela. So too, of course, does Nicolas Maduro, the authoritarian leader who has ruled the crisis-ravaged country since the death of his mentor Hugo Chavez six years ago.
Guaido has the backing of the people, thousands of whom took to the streets Wednesday, along with a host of foreign governments, led by the US, Canada and Brazil, that recognised the congressman as the rightful head of state. But Maduro has control of the security forces, the military, the courts, the treasury coffers and the state oil giant.
This makes Guaido’s claim to power, for now at least, largely symbolic – part of his bid to ratchet up pressure on Maduro to step down. The question is whether the military brass will finally break ties with Maduro and demand a transition.
“The name ‘president’ doesn’t have meaning until you have control of the reins of government,” said Gregory Weeks, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. “And you do not have that until you have control of the military.”
In many ways, this is the same question that has been hanging over the country since Chavez began the regime’s descent into authoritarianism more than a decade ago. But now it comes with a new sense of urgency as the threat of greater foreign intervention builds.
The Trump administration has prepared to sanction Venezuelan oil exports, it is understood, though it hasn’t decided whether to take that step. Such a move would cripple the finances of a country already mired in its worst economic collapse on record.
Oil slid below $53 a barrel yesterday as a darkening outlook for the global economy and signs of rising US inventories overshadowed the risks to Venezuela.
And Guaido, the 35-year-old head of the National Assembly, is seeking to win over military officers by offering amnesty to those who defect.
