A controversial new U. S. base faces a double blow: a referendum defeat and an uphill construction battle.
On February 24 at 8 p.m., Okinawa’s prefecture-wide referendum on the latest U. S. Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) being constructed in Nago City’s Oura Bay closed. The results saw 72.2 percent opposing the facility, 19.1 percent in favor, and a mere 8.7 percent voting for neither. That was a predictable outcome, with previous polls in 2014 and 2017 signaling a similar split.
This non-binding referendum will run up against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s expected plans to ignore the sentiment of the Okinawan people. On February 25, Abe told reporters that his government would take the referendum results seriously – but immediately undercut that promise by saying construction of the new base, meant as a replacement for the existing MCAS Futenma in Ginowan, could not be delayed.
“We cannot avoid the necessity of moving Futenma, said to be the most dangerous base in the world,” Abe said. “We can’t put this off any longer.”
However, even putting aside the referendum, the waters are decidedly now murkier, with construction concerns over Oura Bay’s unstable sea bottom prompting necessary new construction plans and a rocky way forward.
Since 2014, engineering tests have revealed that the floor of the sea is as “soft as mayonnaise,” with an N-value of 0, unable to stably hold the large military construction without sinking (that would require a minimum N-value of 50). Moreover, underneath the Bay are two active earthquake fault lines, along with a 50-meter depression and a danger of trench earthquakes.
This unstable area is required to be able to build a large portion of the landing airstrips, fueling docks, and support facilities. To accommodate a new reclamation plan, budget estimates for construction have risen tenfold — up from 231 billion yen ($2 billion) to 2.5 trillion yen ($22 billion). This increased budget cost also reportedly includes the lengthened stay of riot police flown over from mainland Japan to quell Okinawan protesters at the site.
Due to this uncertainty, in December 2018 the Japanese Cabinet decided reallocate funds for the seawall on the Oura Bay side to the treasury, with no budget plans for it “until 2020 fiscal year or later” while the new construction plans are in limbo.
