The 2020 NBA Playoff field is set. In the Western Conference, there are four intriguing series that provide tremendous star power. Who will prevail in each matchup?
The 2020 NBA Playoffs are set to kick off on Monday, August 17. With the four Western Conference matchups all providing some intriguing storylines and top-15 star power going head-to-head, let’s take a look at each series. Who will escape the first round? After going 6-2 in the seeding games and scoring an outrageous 137.8 points per 100 possessions in their clutch-time minutes, the Blazers’ reward is… playing the No.1 seed in the West. The journey for Portland to get to this point should definitely be admired. They were playing from behind, made up the ground, and still took care of business in the play-in game versus Memphis. The Lakers have the benefit of resting since Thursday afternoon. They were watching Saturday’s play-in, scouting a team that looks completely different than it did when they previously met. There is an interesting dynamic at play when it comes to the discourse of this series. There seems to be groups of people on both ends of the spectrum: The Lakers will terrorize the Blazers and it will be a walkover, or the Blazers will be the most dangerous eight-seed we’ve ever seen and this series will be a dogfight. Why can’t things just settle in the middle? Taking into account the offensive firepower and how guard-oriented the NBA has become, this series has “five incredibly tight games resulting in a close gentleman’s sweep” written all over it. It’s entirely possible that Portland can be a scary opponent for the Lakers on a game-by-game basis. What gets concerning for the Blazers is how their defensive execution (or lack thereof) holds up down the stretch of games. Battling in the fourth quarter with the Grizzlies’ youth and the string of opponents Portland had to go through is completely different than trying to stop a LeBron James and Anthony Davis pick-and-roll in the playoffs. The Blazers don’t have a legitimate answer for handling James when he decides to put his head down, drag Portland’s inadequate defenders to the basket and make a play for himself or others. Even if they had Trevor Ariza during this bubble run, it wouldn’t be enough. Portland will try to guard LeBron by committee, shading him with extra help defenders and relaxing on corner/wing shooters to load up on his penetration. If there is one thing we know about LeBron-led teams, it’s that he doesn’t fall into that trap of taking on the whole team. He’ll be sure to get Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and others enough three-point opportunities for them to wreck Portland’s defensive plan. That’s why this series might be the best medicine for the Lakers — they know the amount of wide-open shots will give them enough chances to snap out of their offensive struggles. However, much like the Blazers are going to be begging for help on James, the Lakers don’t have a quality option for limiting Lillard. Both things can be true. And that’s why this series could get dangerous for the No.1 seed. Starting out, we’ll likely see KCP on Lillard. And it won’t exactly be a pretty sight for the Lakers. At least with Avery Bradley, they had someone that could stay attached to Lillard while navigating through screens and someone that could find ways to be physical with him. Caldwell-Pope isn’t a bad defender in a vacuum, but he just routinely gets roasted by Lillard. You would hope the ability to play better straight up, point-of-attack defense is there in the postseason, given what Lillard has done over the last two weeks. In his eight seeding games, with an immense amount of pressure to win each one, Lillard averaged 37.6 points while shooting 12.6 three-pointers per game. He connected on 43.6% of them. Additionally, he got to the foul line 80 times in eight games (10.0 per). There was simply no answer for him, despite teams trying every type of defensive coverage possible. Again, it doesn’t really matter which perimeter defender the Lakers put on him to start possessions. He’s going to receive insanely high screens by Jusuf Nurkic or Hassan Whiteside, and it’ll be up to Frank Vogel to decide how to contain him when he turns the corner. It means the Lakers’ bigs have to be alert non-stop, and this will include LeBron whenever Portland goes to one of its favorite actions, “double drag.” I mean, the last time they met, it was almost like the Lakers didn’t know what to do when Lillard cleared the first screen. They were practically giving him warmup shots and paid the price for it: There is no way the Lakers will be able to limit these bombs if they continue to play their two-big lineups with Davis and one of McGee/Howard. On this possession, Lillard doesn’t even start with the ball. He receives an off-ball screen at the top of the arc, and then flows into a handoff from Whiteside. Despite McGee stepping up high, it’s still a late contest: If Lillard wanted, he could easily drive around the big, attract more defenders inside, and find one of his teammates for an open three on the weak-side. I mean, even with Bradley’s disruption and agility to get around screens, there wasn’t anything they could do with Lillard drilling tough shots on them this season: Will Vogel elect to sell-out his defense to blitz Lillard on every ball-screen, like Davis’s Pelicans did in 2018, and completely take away the chance he goes ballistic? Forcing the Blazers to create offense in 4-on-3 halfcourt scenarios had its drawbacks earlier in the year, but now they have Nurkic, who is a very gifted passer on the short roll, to handle those type of possessions. If the Lakers decide to trap, they better be quick enough to recover. So, I don’t necessarily agree the Lakers have a cake-walk when it comes to escaping the first round. They are one of the league’s most potent defensive teams, yes, but this version of Lillard is the closest we’ve seen to 2016 prime Stephen Curry. Anything can happen in an individual game when you’re facing an unbelievable off-the-dribble threat. I think people tend to forget how easily a game can be swung with a red-hot shooting night, even if the teams and star-power aren’t equal. In the end, the Lakers should be fine because there is nothing the Blazers can do to prevent James and Davis from getting to their favorite spots on the floor. One thing I believe we’ll see a lot of during this series is James bullying opponents in the post, which he tends to stay away from until it’s absolutely necessary. If some of the games are tight heading into the final few minutes, he’ll use his 17-year veteran experience and old-man game to create problems. After all, he’s usually a magnet when posting up, as teams know they have to collapse. Davis has enough reps against Nurkic and the Blazers in the postseason to know where he can be effective. If he gets baited into too many long jumpers, instead of being the force he’s been all season and drawing a large number of free throws, Portland can hang around. I just don’t expect the Lakers to let things get out of hand. They’ll drop one game because Dame is five-times better than he was in 2018 when the Pelicans had him in a stranglehold. But this is the perfect series for the Lakers to attack multiple weaknesses Portland has, and there’s nobody in history better at pinpointing weaknesses than James. Pick: Lakers in 5 Before the news of a quadriceps strain for Russell Westbrook, this series was shaping up to be the holy grail of narratives. It was almost poetic. Westbrook facing his former franchise, the one that is technically performing better with Chris Paul at the helm, paired with the alleged tension between Paul and James Harden during last year’s playoffs, this would have a few storylines intertwined. Quadriceps pain is nothing to take lightly, so it’s a mystery if we see Westbrook in this series at all. My assumption, based on the reports and his history of being Mr. Ironman when it comes to injuries, is that Westbrook plays half of the series. But, here’s the thing. As tremendous of an athlete and transition force he is, are we positive this hurts the Rockets’ chances in this series? Yes, in most situations, it’s better to have Westbrook active than it is to have him unavailable. However, the Rockets have proven to be a little more dangerous when he’s not on the court. For the whole regular season: Since February 1, the start of bubble play: That may seem like a ton of information, but it’s simple: The Rockets have scorched teams when Harden plays and Westbrook sits. Scoring almost 117 points per 100 possessions, Houston really can’t be contained when you surround Harden with four competent shooting threats. OKC has played exceptional defense with Paul and Steven Adams active this year, but it’s a tall order to keep Harden out of the paint once he has proper floor spacing. The strategy of doubling Harden doesn’t exactly work, unless the Thunder are content with giving someone a wide-open look. The Beard will find his open shooters, and it’s more of a product of his offensive skill and brilliance than it is racking up “cheap assists.” Expect to see Houston place three shooters along the weakside, with one (likely Tucker) in the strong-side corner. Considering Harden can drive by anyone with his sleight of hand and wicked first step, the defense will be in a lot more danger with Westbrook off the floor. If the help comes from a weak-side collapse, he’s made that pass a million times in his career. Defenders know not to leave the strong-side corner, so that’s how Tucker is used as a weapon. If no help comes or it’s from a smaller guard, you aren’t really stopping Harden while he’s on a path to the rim: With Eric Gordon back in the fold, do the Rockets elect to go with Harden, Gordon, P. J. Tucker, Robert Covington, and Ben McLemore as the starters? Assuming Mike D’Antoni sticks with his normal rotation, that only leaves Austin Rivers as a trusted ball-handler in the second unit.
