On Monday, CNN debuted our list of the 10 Senate seats most likely to switch parties on November 3.
Start here: If Joe Biden wins in November, Democrats need to net three GOP seats to ensure majority status. If Biden loses, Democrats need four seats. Then consider that Democratic Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, the No.1 ranked senator most likely to lose by CNN, is sitting in a state that President Donald Trump won by 28 points in 2016. Even if Trump wins by just half that margin this time around, it’s a hugely steep hill for Jones to climb. So let’s, for the sake of argument, assume that Republican and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville beats Jones. That means Democrats need to net four seats if Biden wins the White House and five if he doesn’t. The first two Republican seats are obvious. In Arizona and Colorado, Sens. Martha McSally and Cory Gardner, respectively, have been trailing their Democratic opponents for months.
