Japan’s pandemic problems are bigger than the Olympics, experts say.
The Toyko Olympics appear unlikely to be a “superspreader” event, experts say — but that may be little comfort to people in Japan, where a combination of the delta variant and low vaccination rates is driving a new surge in Covid-19 cases. Japan is currently living through its fifth wave since the start of the pandemic, while the Summer Olympics are finally being held after a one-year delay. The average number of daily new cases jumped from 1,400 in late June up to more than 5,700 as of July 29, nearly matching the previous peaks in May and January. Those rising rates likely reflect a new wave of cases around the world, and in Asia especially, rather than anything specific to the Olympics. In fact, adjusted for population, Japan’s latest wave tracks quite closely with new cases across Asia. The infections currently being reported were also contracted up to two weeks ago, before the start of the Games, though personnel had begun to arrive. “I think what is going on in Japan right now is more reflective of the global picture of increased case numbers,” Andrew Nelson, a University of Minnesota pathologist who contributed to a CDC study on the Sturgis motorcycle rally told me in an email. “Related in part to the delta variant and importantly related to rates of vaccination in specific locales.” The August 2020 rally in Sturgis, South Dakota, is generally thought of as an example of a superspreader event. It drew 460,000 people from around the US, and the CDC’s study linked it directly to clusters of cases in neighboring Minnesota, an example of how the rallygoers may have spread the virus elsewhere. But superspreader events are hard to quantify or define. Some experts have questioned how much we should focus on them, worrying they may distract from the many different ways Covid-19 spreads. Nelson called the term “problematic.” And for the Olympics to actually become a quote-unquote superspreader event, a few things would have to go wrong. That’s not impossible, but it seems unlikely at the moment. Japan isn’t a world leader in vaccination, but it has some other things going in its favor With the Olympics underway, Japan has administered about 81 million shots, enough for roughly one-third of its people.
