Military has might on its side but Hamas is prepared and the humanitarian fallout could prove costly
Israel is poised to launch a ground offensive into the northern half of Gaza, an attack that, for all the country’s military superiority, is fraught with uncertainty and whose potential humanitarian consequences are grim.
The military called up 300,000 reservists on Monday to add to its 170,000-strong standing army and has been massing them near the Gaza border. Hamas, it is estimated, can count on 30,000 fighters, perhaps a tenth of the likely invasion force, and it has neither the tanks nor the air power available to the attackers.
Such an overwhelming ratio should give the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) a high chance of capturing the area of the Gaza Strip, which includes its principal urban centre, Gaza City, from which its leadership ordered 1.1 million Palestinians to evacuate on Friday.
Hamas has long been ready for an Israeli incursion, digging a sophisticated network of tunnels across Gaza intended to allow its forces to survive aerial bombardment. Some tunnels previously discovered by Israel because they went under the border fence are as deep as 70 metres.
The heavily urbanised terrain – the Gaza Strip is one of the world’s most densely populated areas – will also favour the defenders as they try to fight back. Each remaining building will have to be fought over, and heavy mining could further impede the Israelis if Hamas copies the technique used by Russia to blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
