The election race essentially restarts today, and new polling will be crucial to gauge Harris’ standing and the overall impact on the Democratic ticket.
President Biden’s decision to stand down from re-election offers Democrats an unprecedented opportunity to reset this election.
At this hour, Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely nominee.
Many party leaders have endorsed her candidacy, and no other candidate with an appreciable chance of winning the nomination is running.
Harris is known for asking voters to “see what is possible, unburdened by what has been.” Her probable elevation to the top of the ticket allows her party to do that. But it is too early to tell whether she would perform better against former President Trump in the general election than Biden or any other candidate.
That means Biden’s decision to drop out may have been guided more by his own weakness than Harris’ strength. In the meantime, while Harris is unburdened by age, polls show she is burdened by the administration’s unpopularity.
Expect Harris to hold on to issues Democrats are winning and reposition the party on issues they are losing. The race restarts today.Wait for new polls before drawing conclusions about Harris or any other Democratic candidate
Some recent polls have asked voters whether they would support a Democratic candidate other than Biden.
So far, however, poll respondents are being asked to evaluate a hypothetical scenario.
Voters are about to hear a lot more about the new candidate’s strengths and weaknesses.
Other voters will just be getting to know them.
These factors will all impact their standing with the electorate.
Harris is likely to have the least impact on the Democratic ticket’s standing, since her position as vice president means voters are more familiar with her than any other possible candidate.
However, polls cannot yet show whether her elevation changes the race.We will know more in a couple of weeks
Even after voters are aware that someone new is the nominee, it will take time to conduct polls and gather enough of them to understand how the race has changed.
Think of this as a three-step process:
A good rule of thumb is to wait a couple of weeks.The race was still competitive, with early signs that Biden was struggling in battleground states
Polls conducted after Biden’s fatal debate performance show he was running a close race in national polls.
However, he was beginning to struggle in the most competitive states, narrowing his path to victory.
Biden had support from 46% of registered voters in an average of five post-debate polls, including the Fox News Poll, with Trump at 47%. The margin between them is statistically insignificant. (The polls tested both Biden and Harris against Trump.)
In the battleground states, a somewhat clearer picture was emerging.
Biden was locked in a tight battle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two crucial rust belt states on his pathway to 270 electoral college votes (NYT/Siena, AARP).
He was also within the margin of error in Georgia, where Black voters held the key to Biden’s 2020 election victory (AJC).
