Libertarian Chase Oliver is typically polling around 1 percent, which could be influential in the extremely tight race between Harris and Trump.
Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver could tip the scales in the tight 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump by drawing votes in battleground states with razor-thin margins.
Oliver, who is on the ballot in 47 states and a registered write-in in three, is polling around 1 percent, which could be influential this election given the extremely narrow margins between Harris and Trump. However, it is important to note that it’s unclear whether all Oliver voters would have otherwise backed Harris, Trump, or opted not to vote at all.
A Pew Research Center survey of 5,110 adults, conducted between September 30 and October 6, found Harris narrowly leading Trump, 48 percent to 47 percent, with third-party candidates garnering 5 percent of the vote.
When forced to choose between Harris and Trump, respondents’ initially supporting third-party candidates are split: 36 percent favor Harris, 35 percent back Trump, and about 30 percent decline to answer. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points. Other national polls, show a smaller margin for third-party candidates.
Third-party candidates have been called out by Republicans and Democrats over the years for swaying the election by voting for candidates who will not win. To this, Oliver told Newsweek in an email on Friday, “To those in one party or the other who see us as spoilers, I say, the two-party system itself is spoiled rotten. But we welcome being a disruptor to the political binary.”
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Friday.
Oliver, 39, is the youngest candidate in the race, having told Newsweek in an exclusive interview this June, “It’s time for our generation to really rise up.”
Here’s how Oliver is faring in key swing state races, and what that could mean for Harris and Trump.Arizona
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 808 likely voters in Arizona found Trump leading Harris, but both dropping their share of the vote when third-party candidates like Oliver are included.
The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Trump with 51 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’ 46 percent. However, with third-party candidates factored in, Trump lowers to 50 percent and Harris to 45 percent, while Oliver captures less than 1 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein takes 1 percent.
