The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.
Spare a thought for pollsters and pundits in the United States. Less than a fortnight before the country holds the most consequential presidential election in recent memory, the race between US Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump is too close to call. The only certainty is that the country will be just as polarised and fractured after the election as before.
A month ago, Harris had a two-point lead over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ average of national opinion polls. The two candidates were also neck and neck in the crucial swing states. However, in prediction markets, where punters bet on the outcomes of particular events, Harris was the favourite to win the election, with spread betting site PredictIt putting the odds of a Harris victory at 57 per cent.
