Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the seven most recent national polls—as surveys show a virtual dead-heat contest for the White House marked by tossups in all seven swing states, keeping the race wildly unpredictable as the election draws nearer.Key Facts
Harris is up 49%-48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters released Thursday—but some 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters could still change their minds.
Harris also leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.
Harris is up 51%-47%—with just 3% still undecided—in a very large likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a survey backed by several universities and conducted by YouGov, which polled around 50,000 people from Oct. 1 to 25.
Trump also trails Harris 44%-43% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), representing a narrowed lead for Harris since she entered the race in July, with the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll showing her ahead by two points.
Harris is up three points over Trump, 50%-47%, in Morning Consult’s weekly survey, also released Tuesday (margin of error 1 point), after she led by four points, 50%-46%, in the group’s previous two polls.
Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% edge in early October, while a CBS/YouGov survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%, a shift from the vice president’s 51%-48% mid-October lead (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5, and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).
An Emerson College Polling survey (Oct. 23-24) released Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% one week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and it’s the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris hasn’t enjoyed a lead since August.
