Let’s revise our optimistic guesses from last year now the memory crisis is in full swing.
We were pumped for the launch of the Steam Machine after visiting Valve HQ late last year. We even wrote up some pricing expectations, which in hindsight look to be the product of incredibly wishful thinking. But we didn’t know what we do now. Due to incredible demand for memory chips of all kinds—DRAM, mostly, but NAND too—for use with AI, the entire PC gaming ecosystem is in sticker shock. Prices are increasing many times overs.
Valve, too, isn’t immune. In a new FAQ, the company highlights how it would’ve liked to have shared prices for its latest products—the Steam Machine, Steam Controller, and Steam Frame—by now. However, the memory crisis has demanding a rethink.
“When we announced these products in November, we planned on being able to share specific pricing and launch dates by now. But the memory and storage shortages you’ve likely heard about across the industry have rapidly increased since then. The limited availability and growing prices of these critical components mean we must revisit our exact shipping schedule and pricing (especially around Steam Machine and Steam Frame).
“Our goal of shipping all three products in the first half of the year has not changed. But we have work to do to land on concrete pricing and launch dates that we can confidently announce, being mindful of how quickly the circumstances around both of those things can change. We will keep you updated as much as we can as we finalize those plans as soon as possible.”
All three of Valve’s new products are still expected to launch in the first half of 2026. While we don’t have fears for the future of the Steam Controller, the other two are likely to be in a very tricky spot. Below, you’ll find our revised guesses as to the price of the Steam Machine, which more than anything else, appears the most at risk of being priced into relative obscurity.
Let’s look at memory prices, first off. A 16 GB dual-channel kit of plain Crucial memory used to cost around $50 or less. Today, it’s around $200. Four times as much. One analyst firm today noted memory costs surging up to 90% so far this year. It’s only the start of February, eesh.
The Steam Machine uses SODIMM sticks, usually found in laptops, and generally more expensive for consumers to purchase. Single stick kits are a little more affordable. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Valve switch to single stick RAM in light of current SODIMM prices, as it otherwise has nowhere else to go—the platform supports DDR5 and going lower than 16 GB would be a disaster in the making.
Though you’d expect Valve to pull favourable rates with suppliers compared to the average joe, but Valve isn’t one of the big guys. Similarly, the reports of companies staking out memory manufacturers in Korea in the slim hope of scoring sticks puts any meaningful discount into doubt.
Last year, I guessed $529-$649 for the Steam Machine, on the basis that if Valve charged more, it would land at the same price as some budget PCs with more modern kit. Plus, I went to Valve HQ, and it seemed to me like affordability was a consideration throughout the design. As I said then, an RTX 5060 PC build would set you back around $750-$800.
But that was then. Nowadays, you’re looking at around $900 for something similar and even that’s a rarity. It’s up to $1,000 for an RX 9060 XT, though a more powerful and newer GPU than the one found in the Steam Machine.
Since my original guess, we’ve also heard Valve talk on the potential price tag. Not just the bombshell last night that it’s still trying to figure it out, but that it intends to price the Steam Machine “like a PC, not a console”. Similarly, Pierre-Loup Griffais, one of the engineers behind the project, confirmed that Valve was aiming at price parity with a similarly performing PC (ie a pretty affordable PC), but that pricing was up in the air. And these comments were made before the new year, before memory shortages really hit hardest.
All together, it looks like Valve’s best chance of getting a Linux machine into every living room was sometime last year, and now it’s looking for a way to weather the ongoing memory crisis. Perhaps with a view to do something similar to the Steam Deck—keep the Machine around in the market long enough to make an impact and reduce BOM costs. Though unlike the Steam Deck, which enjoyed a rush for preorders on account of its affordability, the same might not happen for the Steam Machine if it’s landing at too high a price and during a slow period in PC sales—which analysts expect we’ll see this year.
I’ve just scrolled through Newegg’s prebuilt PCs, going from cheapest first, and you can’t buy a remotely modern gaming PC for less than $750, and I’m being pretty generous with my definition of ‘modern’.
