The complex situation will require discerning what is fiction—and what is reality.
There is growing concern in the White House and Pentagon that North Korea will soon have the capacity to strike the west coast of the United States with nuclear weapons. Earlier this month, it test-fired four solid-fuel Scud-ER ballistic missiles, indicating that Pyongyang soon will have that ability. In response, the United States deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, THAAD, to provide South Korea and ultimately Japan with a shield to protect them. But there are several major problems with this response.
First, the North Koreans have deployed mobile missile carriers that compromise the ability to carry out a preemptive strike, which would destroy them before they leave the ground. What’s more, THAAD is not fool-proof and it cannot destroy the ICBMs that North Korea will someday deploy. And there is more bad news : according to the New York Times, North Korea’s “speed-up testing seems intended to send a message that they can overwhelm antimissile defenses, deploying missiles faster than the United States and its allies can put countermeasures in place.”
Second, the Chinese claim that THAAD is designed to neutralize their nuclear deterrent, and they refuse to accept American pronouncements that it does not have that capability. China has warned the Americans, and South Koreans will pay a price for deploying THAAD. Toward that end, China has taken economic measures to punish the latter but as yet has not taken actions against the United States. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has observed that the Americans and North Koreans are playing with fire: “The two sides are like two accelerating trains coming toward each other with neither side willing to give way.” Equally disturbing, the dispute has enormous implications for U. S.-China relations that give rise to a possible clash between both countries. The prospect that Washington will redeploy nuclear weapons in South Korea makes Chinese defense analysts nervous. The situation clearly demands prudent leadership in the White House, but that has not been visible since Donald Trump’s inauguration. He has embarked upon a course riven by unsubstantiated claims and intemperate personal attacks on critics, foreign and domestic.
