The timing of the missile launch — on July 4th and 3 days before G-20 summit — is not coincidental.
North Korea’s successful launch of a missile that for the first time could reach the U. S. mainland ratchets up the pressure on President Trump and other world leaders to resolve a growing nuclear crisis with no easy solution.
The test launch came on the Fourth of July, and just three days before a Group of 20 summit convenes in Hamburg, Germany. The timing is almost certainly not coincidental. North Korea uses such occasions to call attention to its provocative acts — and its test elevates the urgency with which Trump and U. S. allies may feel compelled to respond.
Trump has repeatedly called on China to rein in its neighbor and close ally. China on Tuesday suggested a compromise: North Korea would stop missile tests if the United States and South Korea scaled back military exercises in the region.
Wednesday evening, U. S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed the intercontinental ballistic missile launch and called it a “new escalation” of the threat. He vowed to bring additional international pressure on the regime.
“The United States seeks only the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the end of threatening actions by North Korea. As we, along with others, have made clear, we will never accept a nuclear-armed North Korea, ” Tillerson said in a statement. “Global action is required to stop a global threat. Any country that hosts North Korean guest workers, provides any economic or military benefits, or fails to fully implement UN Security Council resolutions is aiding and abetting a dangerous regime. All nations should publicly demonstrate to North Korea that there are consequences to their pursuit of nuclear weapons.”
Trump has said he would be willing to try the diplomatic route, and even agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un face-to-face. Prior diplomatic overtures by two U. S. presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, proved failures when the North reneged on the agreements.
North Korea appears intent on developing a nuclear-tipped missile that could hit the United States, saying it needs such a deterrent to prevent a U. S. attack aimed at overthrowing the regime.
Trump, who has vowed to stop Kim from developing such a weapon, faces a thorny problem. If he orders an attack on North Korea now, he might be able to halt or delay its nuclear and missile programs but could potentially unleash a larger conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea has a 1.2-million-member military, and Seoul, the capital of U. S. ally South Korea, sits just 35 miles from the demilitarized zone marking the border. Conventional weapons — including rockets, missiles and artillery — could still devastate South Korea even if the U. S. military destroyed North Korea’s nuclear sites. That leaves 25 million South Koreans vulnerable, along with 28,000 U. S. troops stationed there.
“Then you get into a situation where the United States has started a war with large-scale South Korean casualties, ” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London. “Even if you could be assured you take out all the nuclear and missile capabilities, North Korea also has significant conventional retaliatory capabilities. That could turn parts of Seoul into Aleppo (Syria) , and that’s the fear.”
Trump has been talking tough on North Korea, a sharp contrast from President Obama, who appeared reluctant to further exacerbate tensions verbally. Instead, Obama pushed for international sanctions to squeeze North Korea economically.
Trump has combined bellicose rhetoric with pressure on China to do more to solve the problem, given its leverage over North Korea’s repressive regime, which could collapse without economic help from its giant neighbor. China has agreed to help Trump but also sees a value in North Korea as a buffer against U. S. troops and a stalwart American ally in the region. And it worries about a flood of North Koreans crossing into China if the regime collapses.
World leaders agree North Korea is led by a brutal dictator — the third family member since the totalitarian nation’s founding — and Kim is well aware what happens to non-nuclear countries when the United States decides it’s time for regime change, Chalmers said, citing the overthrow of dictators in Egypt, Iraq and Libya in recent years.
That’s driving North Korea’s desire for a nuclear threat against the United States mainland. By becoming a danger that cannot easily be neutralized, Kim would ensure a place at the table of nations, despite its status as a rogue state already under heavy international sanctions.
“Hard to believe that South Korea … and Japan will put up with this much longer, ” Trump tweeted after the launch but before North Korea claimed it was an intercontinental missile. “Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!”
Trump’s tweet followed a U. S. military statement describing the launch as a test of an intermediate-range missile.
Earlier this year, Trump tweeted that North Korea was “behaving very badly” and had been “playing” the United States, and has tied how China responds to North Korea to the United States’ relationship with China.
That tough talk, Chalmers said, could force North Korea to the negotiating table because no one is quite sure how Trump might act next.
“What the president appears to be doing… is giving the impression he might carry a disarming strike if his demands are not met. And because of who Trump is and how unpredictable he is, it may be increasing the bargaining position of the United States.
“But how do you translate that into a peaceful resolution and not get your bluff called?” Chalmers said. “There’s no easy option. The Chinese don’ t like what is happening in North Korea, but they also don’ t want regime collapse.
