China and Japan are engaged in a long-term test of wills over disputed waters and territory in the East China Sea.
While attention over the past year in the Asia-Pacific has been focused on developments in the South China Sea – in particular China’s ongoing island-building efforts and expansion of coast guard activities – a new and potentially more destabilizing “normal” has set in around the East China Sea between China and Japan. This “normal” sees China’s air and coast guard forces penetrating Japanese airspace and territorial waters near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands with increasing and sustained frequency.
By most accounts, Japan’s air force and coast guard assets have thus far succeeded in monitoring and deterring China from the types of adventurism that Japan fears might escalate to conflict. Over time, however, Japan’s ability to consistently counter the threat from China will be under increasing pressure and adjustments in Japanese military force composition and interoperability between military and civilian bureaucracies are necessary to address the challenge.
