On 26 March 2017, Hong Kong will choose its next chief executive. In December 2016, the city’s current but unpopular leader CY Leung announced that he would not seek re-election just two days ahead of polls for the Election Committee , the 1200-member body…
On 26 March 2017, Hong Kong will choose its next chief executive. In December 2016, the city’s current but unpopular leader CY Leung announced that he would not seek re-election just two days ahead of polls for the Election Committee , the 1200-member body charged with electing the next head of Hong Kong. Leung’s unexpected early departure was widely seen as a sign that Beijing may change its hardline approach towards Hong Kong, despite his recent promotion to the vice-chairmanship of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
But his withdrawal failed to prevent the pro-democracy bloc from seizing more than a quarter of available seats in the Election Committee. Most won by a landslide in the professional sectors, including in some traditionally Beijing-friendly subsectors like architecture and accountancy.
On the one hand, this record-breaking result dramatically reduces the number of votes that Beijing can sway. But on the other, it emboldens the pro-democracy camp that might play a decisive role in the outcome of Hong Kong’s leadership contest. In principle, the camp can field at most two aspirants from its side. But in practice, the opposition is adopting a novel strategy of ‘selecting a lesser evil’ against the backdrop of a rigged election. The pan-democrats plan to side with a pro-Beijing underdog against the leading horse in the hopes of maximising the electoral competitiveness of the closed system.
Complicating Beijing’s calculation is the attitude of some 220 returned electors who supported Henry Tang in the last chief executive election. An internal divide within the pro-establishment camp was the main reason why Leung scored only 689 votes in 2012, the lowest proportion in a chief executive race. That said, whether this group of committee members is willing to back Carrie Lam, who is now seen as Beijing’s preferred candidate but has been dubbed ‘C. Y. 2.0’, is questionable.
