The NFL season is nearing the quarter pole, and the computers are picking their winners — but they don’t always agree.
The NFL season is nearing the quarter pole, and the computers are picking their winners for every game.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight .
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
After a rough Week 1 for Cortana, it bounced back in Weeks 2 and 3, going 11-5 both weeks and correctly picking all three games on which the two models disagreed. Meanwhile, Elo had a rough week, going 8-8, and is now 29-18 (62%) through three weeks, one game behind Cortana (30-17,64%).
Here are the picks for Week 4, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
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